Pardon the BloggEruption

Onward to Baghdad

Thoroughly brilliant speech by President Bush today at the UN. Until very recently, I had been waffling daily on the Iraqi issue. No more, provided the Brits stay in the game with us. Regime change is past overdue in Baghdad, and the real shame is not "naked American aggression" as the EuroElite would have us believe, but rather that the US, UK, and UN dropped the ball in 1994-95 by ignoring Saddam's blatant disregard for the cease fire agreements and UN resolutions.

A Security Council resolution is supposedly forthcoming. Expect the French to reluctantly agree that something must be done, with the proviso that they share some significant military leadership role. The PRC will likely be an abstaining presence in the debate, but the real wildcard will the the Russians. Will GWB's good relationship with "Pootie-Poot" be enough to get them onboard? I'm not sure. Russians are still smarting over the Chechen debacle, and they are intensely fearful of inciting another wave of Muslim insurgents within their own borders. As for the rest of the Security Council, count Mexico, Colombia, and Ireland as likely to fall solidly for action on Iraq. Norway, Syria, and Cameroon will likely go negative, leaving Mauritius, Singapore, Bulgaria, and Guinea as tossups.

From this mix, I see three possible outcomes:

U.N.S.C. Resolution passes giving Saddam an ultimatum for reinstating inspectors (including Americans), then authorizing use of force should he refuse. Largely NATO-based coalition invades.

Russian Federation vetoes resolution. US and UK go it alone. NATO forces join soon thereafter.

Resolution is defeated without veto. US and UK invade Iraq. Multnational coalition forms to assist some months later.

# posted by Eric @ 12:59 PM