Wednesday, November 06, 2002
All Your Congress Are Belong To Us
What happen!?!? Somebody set us up the sweep! Those who know me know that I'm a small-"L" libertarian, largely vote GOP in the big races, and vote Libertarian whenever possible for the smaller ones. Basically, after watching coverage through about 2AM Central last night, I haven't been this politically pumped since November 1994. It is a great day for Republicans, one that should translate to a victory for personal freedom, economic freedom, states' rights, and national security.
Democrats are generally pissing themselves, as well they should -- they should have had this election handed to them on a silver platter, and they totally blew it. The Dems have no ideas, no agenda, and no reasons to give people to vote for them, instead of against Republicans. Hence, the lesson of negative campaigning -- it works on an individual level, when you can contrast and individual candidate's supposedly bad record / qualities with the positive record / qualities of the opposition candidate. On a general level, most people just will not buy the idea that "Republicans are eeeeeeeeeevil," especially not with a Republican president as popular as Bush.
(Incidentally, any talk of Lincoln Chafee jumping ship is pure bunk -- he's successful because of his father's legacy, and his father was always staunch about party loyalty, even if he voted moderate to liberal on occasion. If anything, Jumpin' Jim Jeffords is lamenting his switch. He will wallow in total irrelevance for the next two years. If Talent is to take office quickly, look for the new Minn. senator to caucus with the Republicans.)
So, what does yesterday's victory mean for American politics as a whole? Potentially a lot, but probably very little. The nation continues to be split about 49/49 GOP / Dem, though I think we might say that the ratio may have changed a bit over the past year, something akin to 49.5 / 48.5. Attribute this to some Reagan Democrats switching after 9/11. The ball is entirely in the Republicans' court right now to put up or shut up, and I suspect that they'll be fairly successful at getting most of the core agenda through. Judicial confirmations will speed up drastically, potentially starting now.
"All politics is local," according to Tip O'Neill, though, and it's worth taking a look at some key races and results:
Texas: Victories by Perry and Cornyn were expected. Dewhurst's victory in the Lt. Governor race was about as tight as we thought going in to the home stretch, but I think this may be the end of John Sharp's political career in Texas. Dewhurst was very vulnerable. A GOP sweep of all the statewide offices continues recent trends, but most importantly, Republicans captured the Texas House for the first time since Reconstruction. Democratic Speaker Pete Laney is expected to keep his seat, though, attesting to the very conservative nature of successful Texas Dems. The state Senate remains solidly Republican. Basically, Texas cancels out California.
Georgia: Huge gains for the Republicans with Saxby Chambliss knocking off Max Cleland in the Senate, and Sonny Perdue crushing the national hopes of incumbent Democratic governor Roy Barnes. Georgia is once again trending solid Republican, but does this mean the popular Zell Miller is in trouble a few years from now? Not likely, though if the GOP makes consistent gains in 2004, he is a definite possiblility to switch parties.
More analysis to come later tonight.